Giving away my entire $5k/week trading model (live backtesting)

 Giving away my entire $5k/week trading model (live backtesting)

I know what you are thinking when you read that title. I know it sounds like something ripped straight from a late-night infomercial or a flashy online ad. In a world absolutely saturated with financial gurus promising instant wealth, a healthy dose of skepticism is necessary, even for survival. But I want you to stick with me, because while I am going to walk you through my entire $5k/week LC trading model, complete with a live backtest of a recent trading week on ES futures, the real secret I am giving away is not the indicators—it’s the psychological framework.

The truth is, this isn’t just about stock charts or futures contracts. This model, and the rigid rules it imposes, speaks to a deep, human yearning for a perfect system—a flawless, rule-based method for making money that can shield us from the chaos and uncertainty of the modern financial world. This article is about showing you how simple trading can get once you follow the right system, and why that system’s greatest utility is eliminating the hardest enemy in the market: yourself.

I am going to back test the LC model in real time and walk you through the entire process for every single trade from start to finish. I’m not just showing you cherry-picked setups or only the wins; I’m showing every trade that the system produced. The goal here is to show you how to think in the moment, not after the fact, and how to stay systematic even when things are uncertain or not obvious.

The Vicious Cycle: Why Trust is Everything

The greatest challenge to overcome when trading in real time is the constant psychological battle against our own instincts. Our brains want to overthink, force a setup, or interfere with the trade once it’s running. The main cause of this internal conflict is a simple lack of trust in the system. We don't trust our strategy enough to let it play out, so we interfere, which inevitably leads to bad results, making us trust the system even less. This creates a destructive, vicious cycle that I have seen destroy countless accounts.

But once you see your strategy play out—win or lose—often enough in the real market, it becomes much easier to trust. When you interrupt yourself less, you get better results, and you naturally start trusting the process more, creating a powerful positive feedback loop that builds consistency and confidence. This trading model is designed to be the logical shield against our emotional, unpredictable nature—what I often call the Savanna Brain.

We are all wired with an ancient brain designed for immediate feedback, spotting immediate opportunities (like ripe berries, which release dopamine) and avoiding immediate dangers (like the rustle of a lion, which triggers panic and adrenaline). But today, we place that same ancient brain in front of a smartphone or a trading platform. The stock market dipping or seeing a friend’s crypto post becomes the "lion" that triggers panic (FOMO). Our emotional, impulsive System 1 brain is profoundly mismatched with the modern financial world, which demands long-term thinking, delayed gratification, and calm analysis amidst abstract threats.

The LC model is pure System 2. System 2 is slow, deliberate, and analytical. The system says, "Don’t feel, don’t guess, don’t hope. Just follow these rules". It is my conscious effort to outsource the difficult work of engaging my own rational mind, ensuring my emotional System 1 can't sabotage my finances.

The Foundation: Non-Negotiable Rules of the LC Model

To ensure this necessary consistency, every trade must adhere to a strict set of non-negotiable rules. This is the framework that eliminates emotional decision-making and guesswork.

1. All Trades Must Be Level-to-Level (LCE)

The core of this strategy is trading between pre-defined supply and demand zones, or "levels". I am not trying to predict market tops or bottoms; I am looking to capture the high-probability move from the edge of one level to the next. My goal is not to take every single LCE trade because that would be inefficient and exhausting. I only want to take trades where the market has a high probability of moving clearly to one level rather than the other.

2. I Only Trade the New York Session

While the LC model works on all time zones, I live in the Eastern time zone and only take trades during the regular U.S. trading hours, specifically from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.. Crucially, I am typically done before 12:00 p.m. most days. I restrict my activity to these hours because the New York session has the most volume and volatility, which provides the clean moves necessary for the strategy to thrive. Trading outside of these hours often involves choppy price action that can lead to false signals.

3. I Only Take Breakout Trades

Within the level-to-level framework, there are two possibilities: mean reversion (the price moves back to the level it came from) or breakout (the price breaks into a new level). I focus exclusively on breakout trades. Why? Because breakouts signal a clear alignment of trend and momentum to one side, making it much more likely to continue in that direction. We are trading with the immediate force of the market. I will not take anything mean reversion or counter trend.

4. Risk is Identical for Every Trade

Risk management is the bedrock of longevity. For every single trade, the risk taken is the same. While the exact size depends on your account and risk tolerance, it must be a size where you can handle 10 to 20 losses in a row without blowing up your mental capital or your account. Losing streaks are a statistical certainty, and you must be prepared for them.

The Live Backtest: Consistency Over Perfection

I executed this backtest on ES futures, my main asset, covering a recent trading week from September 22nd to September 26th.

Monday: Patience Pays Off

On Monday, we opened in the middle of a zone. At the 9:30 open, the 15-minute chart showed choppy, uncertain action. The cloud was recently bullish, then flipped seemingly bearish, but couldn’t hold the price under it. Since uncertainty on the higher time frame translates to even choppier action on the 5-minute execution time frame, I passed. I want the trade to be obvious; I shouldn't be thinking for more than a few seconds about the direction.

So, my plan was simple: I set alerts at both the upper and lower levels and walked away. I don't look at my screen; I just do something else until an alert gets hit.

Later, the upper alert was hit. The market had broken into the upper supply level. Now, I needed confirmation using the cloud that probability was on my side.

1. Higher Timeframe (1-Hour): The cloud was trending up strongly, indicating that momentum and trend were firmly bullish.
2. Execution Timeframe (5-Minute): The cloud was strongly sloping up with a thick layer of support beneath the price, also pointing bullish.

With trend and momentum pointing bullish on both timeframes, it was highly likely to break out and continue, rather than fall back into the range. This analysis takes only seconds.

The Trade: I entered long, placed my stop under market structure, and targeted the next supply level. I closed my screen and waited. Result: Win. That was one successful level-to-level trade done for the day.

Tuesday: A Mirror Image Short

Tuesday was very similar: we opened at a level, in the middle of a range, with a flat cloud and no clear probability. My plan was identical: set alerts on both sides and wait.

The lower alert was hit. Since I needed confirmation for a bearish breakout, I checked the cloud.

1. 5-Minute: The cloud flipped and was sloping down heavily, clearly bearish, supported by structure built that morning.
2. Higher Timeframe (15- or 30-Minute): The cloud was decisively flipping bearish.

This strong momentum shift signaled the market was more likely to continue dropping lower. It doesn't matter precisely where you enter. You just want to enter in this level once you get the confirmation that we’re breaking out and exit at the next level.

The Trade: I entered short, placed my stop loss above market structure, and set my target at the next demand level. Result: Win. We locked in the win and stopped trading.

Wednesday: Doubling Down on the Trend

Wednesday started, once again, looking like a replay: opening at a level, in the middle of a range, with a flat cloud. Alerts set, and I waited for the market to move.

The bottom level was hit. For confirmation, I found even more conviction than yesterday. The higher time frame showed the cloud was fully sloping down with a heavy cloud of resistance. The 5-minute chart was also showing the cloud flipped bearish. Both time frames were in alignment, telling us a breakout was highly likely. Crucially, I didn’t check any news or outside influences; this is pure level-to-level movement.

The Trade: I entered short, stop above market structure, target at the next demand. Result: Win. Another clean level-to-level drop.

Thursday: The Necessary Loss and the Lesson

On Thursday, the market was already in a downtrend with the cloud looking heavy above the price, giving us a natural inclination to go short. Sticking to the conservative plan, I waited for the breakout.

As anticipated, the price folded under the cloud’s downward pressure and hit the level below. My alert triggered, and I took the short.

The Trade: Entered short, stop above market structure, target at the next demand level. Result: Loss. The trade got stopped out.

Losses are normal; you should never expect a 100% win rate because that is impossible. The key lesson here was analyzing why it failed. The sharp drawdown caused by the cloud’s bearish pressure happened almost immediately at the open. By the time the price reached the demand level where my alert was, the move was already too extended. It lacked the momentum or market structure to continue.

The critical lesson: If you miss the initial, clean move, avoid chasing the second one, especially if the trade is extended from its momentum source (the cloud).

Friday: Caution and Risk Adjustment

Finally, we reached Friday. We were set to open between two levels. I set my alerts and waited.

Right at the open, the price tested under the cloud, then immediately sprang up with strong bullish momentum, breaking the upper supply level. The 5-minute chart was bullish, but my confirmation check revealed a potential flaw: the higher time frames were still neutral or just beginning to flip bullish.

This meant the setup wasn't as clean as the others, as it lacked full higher timeframe support. I decided to still take the trade, but with extra caution, knowing the move might collapse or consolidate. My caution meant I would move my stop to break even more aggressively once the trade moved decently in my favor.

The Trade: Entered long, stop under market structure, target at the next supply level. The risk-to-reward was smaller than the previous trades due to the lower quality setup. Result: Win. The target hit. True to the analysis, the move immediately collapsed on itself afterward because it was missing the higher timeframe support. But we were already out, having secured the level-to-level move.

Beyond the Trade: The Real Psychology of Money

The week wrapped up with four wins and one loss. The backtest demonstrated the importance of consistency. When you trade level-to-level with the LC model, everything becomes binary: either it’s a breakout or it’s not; either the probabilities line up, or they don’t. You are not sitting there forcing something that isn't there, or second-guessing.

This systematic approach is how you overcome the destructive cognitive biases that undermine financial success. The rigid rules of the LC model are designed to neutralize our ancient wiring.

• Loss Aversion: The pain of losing is twice as powerful as the pleasure of gaining, often leading us to hold onto losing trades far too long. By enforcing Identical Risk for every trade, the system makes the decision for us, protecting us from this pain.
• Confirmation Bias: I used to actively search for articles that confirmed my belief that a setup was perfect, ignoring dissenting data. The LC model demands two objective confirmations (1-hour and 5-minute Cloud alignment) before entry, forcing a purely logical analysis and overriding any personal bias.
• Overconfidence and Recency Bias: A winning streak makes us feel invincible, leading us to take bigger risks. The rule of Identical Risk prevents this recklessness, ensuring that every victory is attributed to the system, not to my temporary feeling of skill.

The search for a perfect external system—whether it’s this trading model or a "guaranteed" crypto coin—is a desperate search for a way to override our ancient, often counterproductive, programming. The true value of this LC model is that it’s a pure System 2 framework that keeps the emotional Savanna Brain firmly out of the decision-making process.

Building Your Own "Personal Trading Model"

The beauty of these rules is that they are not limited to ES futures. You can apply the core principles of a disciplined trading model to manage your personal, everyday finances, turning them into a profound framework that reduces anxiety and builds control.

Here is how I suggest translating the four rules of the LC model into a personal financial system, allowing you to focus on building consistency rather than constant willpower.

Original Rule 1: All Trades Must Be Level-to-Level

Your Personal Rule: Define Your Financial Zones. In trading, levels are supply and demand. In your life, your "levels" are clearly defined financial goals, ensuring every dollar has a single, clear job. You eliminate confusion and guilt by focusing only on the current zone. For example:

• Zone 1: The Emergency Fund ($0 to $1,000). Your sole focus until you hit that breakout.
• Zone 2: High-Interest Debt (Aggressively paying off credit cards).
• Zone 3: Full Emergency Fund (3-6 months expenses) & Retirement Contributions. By defining your zones, you move from vaguely "trying to save" to actively working to break into the next level of stability.

Original Rule 2: I Only Trade the New York Session

Your Personal Rule: Create a Weekly "Financial Power Hour". I restrict my trading hours to avoid emotional exhaustion and low-volume "chop". You should restrict your financial activity too. Instead of constantly checking your bank account or making scattered financial decisions, schedule a non-negotiable 30-60 minute block once a week. During this "Power Hour," you review spending, pay bills, and make necessary adjustments. For the rest of the week, you can relax, knowing the system is running, preventing financial anxiety from bleeding into every corner of your life.

Original Rule 3: I Only Take Breakout Trades

Your Personal Rule: Focus on Positive Momentum. A breakout trade is a bet that momentum will continue. In personal finance, you must weaponize your small wins. When you successfully pay off a loan—a "breakout" from the debt zone—do not simply stop. Immediately redirect the exact amount you were paying on that loan to your next goal. This creates a powerful "snowball" effect, capturing the momentum of one victory and using it to propel you toward the next.

Original Rule 4: Risk is Identical for Every Trade

Your Personal Rule: Automate Your Most Important Financial Habit. The most powerful way to defeat your emotional System 1 is to remove it from the decision-making process entirely. The single most important trade you can make is paying yourself first. Define a consistent amount—your "identical risk"—and set up an automatic transfer from your checking account to your savings or investment account the day you get paid. This transfer must happen before you pay bills, before you buy groceries, and before your System 1 gets a chance to argue that you "need" that money. Automation is the ultimate System 2 tool.

Conclusion: The Freedom of a Framework

We started with the seductive promise of a trading model that generates significant weekly income. I’ve shown you the LC model, which wrapped the backtest week with four wins and one loss. I showed you how the cloud provides confirmation, how to manage risk identically, and the crucial lesson of avoiding extended moves.

But the real, lasting takeaway is this: True financial health comes from building a personal framework that manages the internal conflict between your emotional, ancient brain and your logical, modern mind. The most effective system isn’t about catching every move or showing perfection. It is about building consistency and letting the system do the heavy lifting.

A good system doesn't try to eliminate emotion; that’s impossible. It provides a logical, gentle structure that guides us when we are stressed, fearful, or tempted. This framework doesn't trap you; it sets you free. Free from decision fatigue, free from constant anxiety, and free to scale to incredibly large numbers because you are focused on a simple, repeatable process with a clear edge. If you are focusing on anything beside that, you are wasting your time. You just need to catch the clean moves and trust the process.

This is how you build genuine financial strength: not through willpower, but through compassionate self-awareness and simple, consistent habits that support System 2. If you want to start trading this systematic way, or if you want to apply these rules to your everyday finances, let the structure do the heavy lifting for you. You are capable of building a powerful financial life, one system, one habit, one day at a time.